Name of Applicant:?Pallavi Kumari
Grade:?X
School:?BAPS Swaminarayan Vidyamandir
City:?Silvassa
Union Territory:?Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Country: India
Why predict the future? More than an attempt at being Nostradamus, the value is in providing targets against which others may compare their thoughts and to stimulate efforts to either facilitate or inhibit possible futures implied by the predictions. As technology plays a larger role in education, any predictions concerning the future of education must include an analysis of technological trends. The purpose of this paper is to do just that: Analyze the trends in technology and how they relate to education, and then to extrapolate these trends in an attempt to predict the future of technology and education. Much of what is predicted in this paper might offend ardent supporters of our traditional educational system and a large portion of it will probably miss the target substantially. However, it will be clear that as technology is adopted into education, the end result will be change. Introduction Education Today For over a century, education has remained largely unchanged. Classrooms full of students deferring to the wisdom of an all-knowing professor has, is, and many believe, will continue to be the accepted mode of instruction. Despite many technological advances and the introduction of new pedagogical concepts, the majority of today?s classrooms continue to utilize this traditional mode. Educators have thrived in a bubble immune from advancements in technology, but the increasing rate of change of these advances now look to be threatening to burst this bubble. The world is changing ? it is getting both smaller and bigger at the same time. Our world shrinks as technologies now allow us to communicate both synchronously and asynchronously with peers around the world. Conversely, the explosion of information now available to us expands our view of the world. As a result of the ability to communicate globally and the information explosion, education must change. Most educators might not want to change, but the change is coming ? it is a matter of when not if. The challenge is to prepare the children of today for a world that has yet to be created, for jobs yet to be invented, and for technologies yet undreamed. As we will see, the driving forces of Moore?s Law, Metcalfe?s Law, technology fusion, and a changing world economy are redefining the way our children need to be taught. The current teaching paradigm of the teacher as the possessor and transferor of information is shifting to a new paradigm of the Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.teacher as a facilitator or coach. This new teacher will provide contextual learning environments that engage students in collaborative activities that will require communications and access to information that only technology can provide. It is no secret that education is slow to change, especially in incorporating new technologies. This is described by Jukes and McCain (1997) as paradigm paralysis, the delay or limit in our ability to understand and use new technology due to previous experiences. It takes new experiences to replace the old ones, and this simply takes time. Unfortunately, education can no longer take the time it wants. The trends in technology are creating a future that is arriving faster than education is preparing for it. We must therefore ask what are these trends and how will education adapt to them? To answer these questions, the techniques of H.G. Wells will be used. Wells, the father of futures studies, ?had a gift for seeing how all the activities of humankind ? social, cultural, technological, economic, political ? fit together to produce a single past, and by extension a single future? (Wagar, 1993, . First we will take a brief look at our past to formulate an understanding of the trends of today. This will be followed by a detailed analysis of these trends. Finally, we will peek into the crystal ball and predict the future of technology and education. The Trends of Today Computers and Moore?s Law In order to understand today?s technological trends, it helps to take a look at how they have developed over the years. Even in education, computers have a long history. For example, the ENIAC, built at the University of Pennsylvania?s Moore School of Electrical Engineering between 1944 and 1946, was the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer (Goldschmidt & Akera, 1998). It weighed 30-tons, contained 19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays, and consumed almost 200 kilowatts of electrical power (Weik, 1961). Designed to calculate trajectory tables for new guns, the ENIAC failed on an average of every seven minutes, but when it worked it could compute 10-digit multiplication in 3/1000th of a second ? a huge accomplishment for its day (Jukes & McCain, 1997). More recently, the 1980 model Cray supercomputer was the fastest machine of its day. It cost $12 million, weighed five tons, and consumed 150kW of electricity ? all this and it had only 8MB of RAM and operated at speed of 80 MHz (Jukes & McCain, 1997). By comparison, a used computer today with the same capabilities can be purchased for under $300. Since the popularization of the desktop computer in the 1980s, we have become painfully aware of how quickly computers become outdated. Many of today?s educators point to this trend in their argument against the use of computers. This trend of increased power at lower cost is likely to continue well into the next century and has popularly become known as Moore?s Law, after Gordon Moore, the cofounder of Intel Corporation. In 1965 he suggested (half in jest) that technology doubled in processing power approximately every 18 months and at the same time the price for that technology declined by about 35% a year relative to this power. The accuracy of Mr. Moore?s prediction has proven to be frighteningly accurate. The table below (Tab. 1) illustrates the effects of Moore?s Law from 1984 to 1999, with some minor adjustments. In a 1993 speech, Randall Tobias, the Vice Chairman of AT&T, put Moore?s Law in perspective when he said, ??if we had had similar gains in automotive technology, today you could buy a Lexus for about $2. It would travel at the speed of sound, and go 600 miles on a thimble of gas. It would be only three inches long?but easy to parallel park!? (pg. 244). Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.(Assumptions: Every 18 months RAM doubles in size, HD increase 275% in size, CPU speed increases 40%, and cost drops 10%). Moore?s Law 1984 1990 1999 RAM (in Megabytes) 0.13 2 131 HD (in Megabytes) 0.4 23 10000 CPU (in MHz) 10 51 411 Cost $4,000.00 $2,600.00 $1,400.00 Table 1 ? Moore?s Law Taking the reverse stance of education, business and industry have adopted the approach of staying up-to-date with technology. The current economy appears to support the notion that this approach is valid, yet the majority of our schools continue to adopt the approach of remaining several technological generations behind business and industry. The Graphical Interface and Educational Resistance I see no advantage whatsoever to the graphical user interface ?Bill Gates, 1981 The graphical user interface was first developed by Xerox?s Palo Alto Research Center. After a visit to this lab, Steve Jobs, the chairman of Apple Computers, bought the idea and named it Macintosh. ?For many, this event has been heralded as the most significant conceptual breakthrough in the history of PCs? (Jukes & McCain, 1997). Eventually, even the recalcitrant Bill Gates adopted the graphical interface into his Windows operating system. During the 1990s, the graphical interface environment has allowed the general public to use computers in a variety of ways never imagined possible. The skills in operating a computer have become much like those necessary to play a video game ? point there, click the button, and something happens! The generation of video game players, our youth, effectively has become the best audience for computers, yet educators resist using them. Since the large-scale induction of computers into America?s schools in the early 1980s, there has been reluctance of educators to implement them. Teachers can hardly be blamed for this reluctance. A major barrier has been a lack of a universal agreement on how teachers should be prepared to use the technology (Willis & Mehlinger, 1996). This is not cause to write off the personal computer for classroom use. In reference to preparing pre- and in-service teachers, Bull and Cooper (1997) believe, ?it is important to be realistic about the time frame that will be required to accomplish this [integration of technology] in the depth that may be eventually desired? (pg. 101). In fact, the last 15 to 20 years might be viewed more as a time of courtship Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.between computers and K-12 educators. Clearly, in order for educators to adopt current technologies an emphasis must be placed on adequately preparing pre- and in-service teachers. Telecommunications/Networks and Metcalfe?s Law As the power of the computer increases, so do the capabilities of communications media including glass fibers, copper wires, and wireless communication systems. For example, scientists at Fujitsu and other companies have demonstrated the capacity to send data over a single strand of glass the diameter of a human hair at a speed of one trillion bits per second (Thornburg, 1997). At this rate the entire Library of Congress could be transmitted in seconds (Molitor, 1998), or 70 million simultaneous voice conversations could be sent on a single fiber (Tobias, 1993). Conventional copper wires cannot compete with these rates of transmission, but by using an Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) transmissions in excess of six million bits per second can be achieved. Many cable television providers are providing broadband services of up to ten million bits per second over copper wire systems as well. Much like the phenomenon with computer memory, as these speeds increase, the cost of using these services decreases. Take for example the consistent decrease in long distance telephone rates over the last few years; the ability to transmit enormous numbers of calls through one wire has driven prices down substantially. The combination of better, cheaper computers and increased bandwidth has caused a boon in the network community (i.e. the Internet). Bob Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet, suggested that the power of a network increases proportionally by the square of the number of users. Over time this has become known as Metcalfe?s Law. Like Moore?s Law, Metcalfe?s Law has played a major role in shaping the business world, and now it is beginning to affect education. Simply put, Metcalfe?s Law states that the more people that are connected to a network, the more powerful that network becomes. As millions connect to the Internet, the Network of networks, the power of sharing information and ideas grows. Education is in the business of sharing information and ideas, making Metcalfe?s Law a force that will play a major role in shaping the institution in the years ahead. Internet and the Web The merging of Moore?s Law, Metcalfe?s Law, and easy-to-use graphical interfaces form the foundation of the communication revolution we are now experiencing. The International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts that 320 million people will be able to access the World Wide Web by 2002. In 1997, 78 million devices connected to the Web; by 2002 this number will increase to 515 million (WISTA, 1998). In 1996, the U.S. Postal Service delivered an astonishing 185 billion pieces of first class mail, yet in that same year the Internet handled about one trillion e-mail messages. Federal Communications Committee Chairman Reed Hunt has said, ?The communication age is connected to the greatest revolution in the history of education since the invention of the printing press? (Thourburg, 1997). Technology Fusion Another event that will likely have a significant impact on education is technology fusion. Twenty years ago we saw sharp distinctions between computers, photos, publishing, TV/video, and telecommunications. Now the distinctions between these media are blurring (see Fig. 1 below). In Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.a few more years there will be virtually no distinction between them (Jukes & McCain, 1997) (Land & Portway, No Date). The result of this fusion is the manufacturing of computers that can perform all of the functions that not long ago needed separate devices. The Education Coalition (TEC) considers the merger of computing, television, printing and telecommunications as the most significant trend in education and technology. ?Bringing them together results in the whole having greater impact than each individual part?? (Land & Portway). 1978 1998 2001 Figure 1 (adapted from Jukes, 1997) Economy If education is responsible for preparing its students to be contributing members to the world economy (it is the opinion of the author that this is a responsibility of education), we must consider what type of an economy these students will be entering. In October 1998, The World Information Technology and Services Alliance (WISTA) published a report entitled, Digital Planet, the Global Information Economy. WISTA commissioned International Data Corporation to perform this study which presents the broadest view of current levels of customer spending on information technology and communications ever assembled. The study concluded that spending on information and communications technology (ICT) is a critically important element of the worldwide economy. Below are some of the study?s findings (WISTA, 1998): l ICT was responsible for $1.8 trillion in spending in 1997. l In 1997, ICT spending was nearly 40% larger than in 1992. l ICT spending is growing 27% faster than the overall worldwide Gross Domestic Product. l Spending on ICT is a key accelerator, catalyst, and multiplier of a wide variety of social and economic measures, including company and job growth. l An average of 7,200 new tax-paying ICT companies have been added in the United States during each of the last five years. l 380,000 ?software and service? jobs have been added in the United States during the past five years. l ICT increases overall economic activity. Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.With the world economy so intricately tied to information and communications technologies, the careers of today and tomorrow are directly related to these technologies. The Thornburg Center recently conducted a study of the 54 jobs identified by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as having the highest numerical growth between now and the year 2005. Of the 54 jobs, 46 required technological fluency, and none of the remaining eight paid more than double minimum wage (Thorburg, 1997). Technological fluency is more than technological literacy; it requires that an individual be as comfortable using technology as they are reading the newspaper. The lack of technologically fluent workers is already a problem. The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) has warned that one out of ten jobs requiring information technology skills is going unfilled (Thornburg, 1997). Clearly, our educational system is failing to adequately prepare technologically fluent workers, so we must ask what does education need to do to address this problem? The Role of Education Being a Webmaster is one of today?s hottest careers, yet five or six years ago Webmasters did not even exist. This is an example of how education must consider preparing students for jobs that have yet to be created. Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, recently said (1997), ?One of the most central dynamic forces [in the economy] is the accelerated expansion of computer and telecommunications technologies?clearly our educational institutions will continue to play an important role in preparing workers to meet these demands? (pg. 98). He also stated, ?workers are facing the likelihood that they will need retooling during their careers?education is increasingly becoming a lifelong activity? (pg. 100). To prepare students to be lifelong learners requires a new approach to teaching, one in which students are taught how to learn on their own. Unfortunately, we don?t have to look hard to find teachers utilizing new technological tools to replicate old educational models. For example, most uses of distance education employ the same instructor delivering the same lecture to the same audience, only now the audience can be larger. This distance education model does nothing to address the concept of lifelong learning. This traditional model still places the student in a passive role, merely absorbing as much information as possible. Instead, more collaborative models of distance education could be employed. For example, The Center for Technology and Teacher Education at the University of Virginia uses live video connections with partner universities to bring together professors and students in a forum where all parties contribute and benefit from the collaborative learning experience. However, the overall dependence on the traditional instructional model dominates the majority of today?s educational system. Much of the failure to utilize technology in education today is, as Thornburg puts it, ?the assumption that content [is] king?in a world of rapid information growth, it is context that matters?context is king? (in Thorburg, 1997, pg. 5). Thornburg advocates that rather than teach students a stockpile of facts to use ?just in case? they might need them some day, that instead learning be put in context ? i.e. master the ability to gather the appropriate facts and then creatively leverage those facts towards the learning objective. Teachers should create situations where the students are required to locate the facts and information specifically related to the context of the question at hand, and then to utilize that information effectively. An example is the Jasper Mathematics series created by the Vanderbilt University?s Peabody College of Education. In these multimedia presentations, students are introduced to characters that are faced with a Disclaimer: The research materials are collated from web based resources.mathematical dilemma that the students help the characters solve. Rather than having students learn facts ?just in case? they might need them some day, the series promotes ?just in time? learning; collaborative learning environments where groups of students find solutions to realworld scenarios. The 1995 Congressional Office of Technology Assessment report entitled Teachers & Technology: Making the Connection, encourages this type of teaching and explained how technology facilitates it (OTA, 1995, pg. 1-2): ?Using technology can change the way teachers teach. Some teachers use technology in ?teacher-centered? ways?On the other hand, some teachers use technology to support more student-centered approaches to instruction, so that students can conduct their own scientific inquiries and engage in collaborative activities while the teacher assumes the role of facilitator or coach.? When the rate of change inside an institution is less than the rate of change outside, the end is in site? Jack Welch.
Source: http://eindia.eletsonline.com/2012/future-of-technology-in-education-pallavi-from-baps-swaminarayan-vidyamandir-silvassa/
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BRUSSELS ? The European Commission on Thursday presented an action plan to spur the automotive industry in the 27-member European Union.
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Public release date: 31-Oct-2012
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